Η καταδίκη, η απόπειρα δολοφονίας και ο “αστερισμός” του Donald Trump σημαδεύουν τις επερχόμενες εκλογές στις Η.Π.Α.

The 2024 presidential election in the US is shaping up to be one of the most talked-about events of the year and with good reason. The turmoil surrounding the candidates and major shifts—such as President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election in favor of his Vice President, Kamala Harris—has already stirred significant drama. The most striking depiction of current US politics, however, is the ongoing trial of former President and presidential candidate Donald Trump. The US remains the only country to have achieved hegemony and continues to enjoy the benefits of that worldwide. As such, the fate of the US presidency transcends American borders, with its impact is to reverberate around the world.

Trump’s conviction is a remarkable first for American politics. Not only is he the first (former) American President to get a guilty verdict, but he is also the first nominee to become a convicted felon. In a world where convicted felons are often excluded from the job market, or deemed eligible for only limited and low-impact occupations, is it possible for a potential President, the highest form of office, to be a convict? Many such questions have arisen since the start of the campaign, with people worried about the future and the potential impact of a prison sentence for Donald Trump.

A well-rounded view of the situation demands an understanding of what Trump’s conviction was based on. The former President has been found guilty of falsifying business records, while in office. He was first indicted in June 2023, under the accusation of having confiscated classified national documents after leaving office. He was later charged with more counts, some of which have been dismissed, such as the accusation of trying to overturn the 2020 electoral results, for which he was found to have partial immunity. Of the four current cases against him, the former President has so far only been convicted of one, the “Hush-Money trial”, for which he was accused of trying to disguise the money he paid to Stormy Daniels as legal fees for the 2016 presidential campaign. While the guilty verdict paints a dark spot on Trump’s potential re-election, it is not yet certain that he will face prison. It is believed that the case will be settled with a fine.

Of the remaining cases, specifically the Capitol Riot and the 2020 Georgia election, trial dates remain uncertain. For the most serious – perhaps – of the accusations, mishandling of classified documents, Trump’s lawyers achieved a significant win, with the case being dismissed by a judge on the 15th of July. However, a potential appeal could mean substantial prison time if Trump is found guilty.

If this wasn’t eventful enough for the public, Trump’s assassination attempt on July 14th sent shockwaves around the world. Many of his supporters deified him, and the picture of him with his raised fist and bloody face made headlines in every major news outlet worldwide. In all this mayhem, the election could easily be overshadowed, were it not for the fact that Donald Trump is still very much a viable presidential candidate.

The implications of a guilty verdict mixed with the aftermath of an assassination attempt have produced contradicting opinions on Trump’s popularity. A significant number of supporters have waivered after the conviction, but the Republican party has rallied behind the former president after the assassination attempt. Having solidified his party’s support, Trump seems to have gained, rather than lost. His name is surrounded by scandal, and he has been elevated to an almost mythical status. Is it possible for such a candidate to lead the Western World? Are the implications enough to hinder his path to greatness or did the assassination attempt solidify his victory in the public eye? While only time can answer these questions, an overview of history might provide insight into the unique case of Donald Trump.

Many political figures have faced legal troubles, from Richard Nixon to Bill Clinton. The first resigned, while the other completed his term, with both cases highlighting the effect of scandal and legal prosecution on a political career. More recently, and while not on American soil, the case of Benjamin Netanyahu comes to mind. The Israeli President has been indicted on charges of bribery, forgery, and breach of trust, and yet continues to serve, having secured a return to power.

Donald Trump’s conviction, while unprecedented, shares similarities in the ways of handling and the impact of outside factors on his public image and acceptance. Media coverage plays a crucial role in shaping public opinion, as was seen in the case of President Clinton. Divided public opinion ultimately allowed him to continue his term, despite the scandal surrounding his name. Trump’s adept use of the media and the coverage he gets by being perceived as a survivor, could very well sway voters to his side, despite his criminal charges.

Taking it a step further, the very nature of his impeachment could work for him. Trump has often used the trial as a reference point to promote a narrative of political persecution. Given the differing opinions around his presidency and his past, it isn’t unlikely that such a narrative will resonate with many of his followers, potentially overshadowing the impact of a guilty verdict.

Ultimately, the most important question remains what would a potential re-election of Donald Trump mean for the future of American and even world politics? Unlike his predecessors, Trump is in the unique position of running for President while facing legal prosecution. The motives and the decisions of his trials greatly impact the American judicial system, creating division and confusion. The mere probability of a presidential candidate facing prison and the lack of limitations for such a thing create an imbalance in the correlation between legal accountability and political power. Should Trump be re-elected, his legal troubles will be remembered as nothing more than a bump in the road of his tumultuous political career. Should he lose, part of it will be attributed to that.

Regardless of the outcome, the road to the 2024 presidential elections is paved with scandal, polarity, and anxiety, as the world awaits the decision. The ultimate judge of Mr. Trump’s eligibility will be the American voters. The impact of the election, however, will be felt by all: the American political system, the people, and the world.

Author:  Έλλη Ματθαιάδη

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